News & Views


目前,大家都在谴责GDP,有些极端的甚至看法认为:GDP简直就是罪恶的渊薮。但是GDP究竟“坏”在哪里却并不是人人能够说清楚的。我们以中国 2008年30万亿的GDP总量为例(准确数据为3000670亿元),用科学发展观的理念来做一个计算,以此说明一下这个问题,希望对大家有启发。

GDP是一个会计概念,就是增加值(取三种统计方法中的一种,对数量没有影响),即收益—成本之后的净利润(这里的“净”不是绝对的“干净”或者“净剩余”)。它是一个经济核算体总的净利润,代表在一个年度内一个经济体创造了多少 “新”的利润(或者财富。但不一定是“净”财富)。

GDP的第一个问题是它没有把折旧考虑进去,没有考虑对原来的投资的损耗补偿。如果以2008年中国为例,就是没有把产出30万亿增加值所消耗的财富考虑进去。这样,我们首先就要计算折旧。折旧在这里不完全一个是会计概念(不能统一规定),它和现存财富的“寿命”有关。比如,一部机器,质量好的可以用50 年,质量坏的5年就完蛋,前者的平均年折旧2%,而后者的平均年折旧20%。我们国家的产品质量,特别是公共产品,如公路、建筑质量特别差,机械类等的质量也比较差,把折旧率定在20%是比较合适的(其实是一个保守的比率,只要看看我们的公路和道路每年在重修就知道)。这样,2008年我国的净GDP就是 24万亿(30—30×20%)。

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