News & Views

中国2008年GDP为6万亿——根据科学发展观的一个推算

目前,大家都在谴责GDP,有些极端的甚至看法认为:GDP简直就是罪恶的渊薮。但是GDP究竟“坏”在哪里却并不是人人能够说清楚的。我们以中国 2008年30万亿的GDP总量为例(准确数据为3000670亿元),用科学发展观的理念来做一个计算,以此说明一下这个问题,希望对大家有启发。

GDP是一个会计概念,就是增加值(取三种统计方法中的一种,对数量没有影响),即收益—成本之后的净利润(这里的“净”不是绝对的“干净”或者“净剩余”)。它是一个经济核算体总的净利润,代表在一个年度内一个经济体创造了多少 “新”的利润(或者财富。但不一定是“净”财富)。

GDP的第一个问题是它没有把折旧考虑进去,没有考虑对原来的投资的损耗补偿。如果以2008年中国为例,就是没有把产出30万亿增加值所消耗的财富考虑进去。这样,我们首先就要计算折旧。折旧在这里不完全一个是会计概念(不能统一规定),它和现存财富的“寿命”有关。比如,一部机器,质量好的可以用50 年,质量坏的5年就完蛋,前者的平均年折旧2%,而后者的平均年折旧20%。我们国家的产品质量,特别是公共产品,如公路、建筑质量特别差,机械类等的质量也比较差,把折旧率定在20%是比较合适的(其实是一个保守的比率,只要看看我们的公路和道路每年在重修就知道)。这样,2008年我国的净GDP就是 24万亿(30—30×20%)。

"....One of Sunday's presenters, Harry Wu, who spent 19 years imprisoned in the Chinese labor camps known as 'laogai,' denounced his homeland's denial of religious liberty. He lamented that there is no freedom of worship in China, and stated that 'Catholicism is still illegal' "Wu continued: 'All the churches and temples are government property. There is a religion of the state, which is...Read more
"The roster of participants at the Oslo Freedom Forum read like a veritable Who's Who of contemporary Hydra-hunting and neck-stump cauterizing Iolauses. They included Elie Wiesel, the scourge of Nazis old as well as neo; Vladimir Bukovsky, who first exposed the Soviets' use of psychiatry to suppress dissent; Armando Valladares, the poet who spent decades imprisoned in Castro's island Gulag (where...Read more
"Photos show a bus driver, a teacher and a newspaper editor arrested for throwing eggs and paint at a gigantic photo of Mao Tse Tung hanging in the square. "'Mao Tse Tung was the symbol of 5,000 years dictatorship,' said Zhijian Yu, who was a protester then. 'We want to bring it to an end.' "Fellow protester Decheng Lu added, 'There was such a feeling -- you got to do something.' "All three were...Read more
“My heart is heavy with memories of June 4th. These memories will never be erased from my mind. It is a topic that pains me to bring up, especially when the June 4th anniversary is upon us. I am unable to sleep or eat. My mind is in turmoil. The movement 20 years ago was a noble one and it changed our lives.” “The participants were not limited to university students. The general public—in the...Read more
"While China says it liberated Tibet, Wu's exhibition depicts authorities destroying temples and other religious heritage of the region and setting up labor camps — the exact number of which, he said, is impossible to verify. The exhibition, which runs until May 30, features photographs and video footage taken secretly in Tibet, either by Tibetans or their sympathizers." ....read more (Tandon,...Read more
Lodi Gyari, Special Envoy of His Holiness the Dalai Lama, has issued a call for Tibetans, in Tibet and around the world to record their experiences of suffering over the past 50 years. "It is vitally important, especially as a testament to those Tibetans no longer here, that we record our personal experiences of suffering. We should do this, not to fuel resentments but to help the Chinese people...Read more

Pages